LONDON/MOSCOW: Facing growing concerns about an oil glut and new sanctions on Russia, OPEC+ has decided to slow its production expansion, opting for a modest supply increase in December before pausing output hikes through the first quarter of next year.

The decision marks a shift for the alliance, which had been gradually boosting output since April in an effort to regain market share. But with prices under pressure and forecasts pointing to weaker demand, members agreed that caution was now the more imaginative play.

According to the group's statement issued over the weekend, the eight OPEC+ producers participating in monthly output adjustments — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria — will raise December production targets by 137,000 barrels per day, matching the pace of October and November.

"Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026," OPEC+ said.

Since April, the alliance has added around 2.9 million barrels per day, or 2.7 percent of global supply, but the recent slowdown reflects fears of oversupply as oil inventories climb and global demand signals remain mixed.

Prices, which had fallen to a five-month low of US$60 a barrel on October 20, have since rebounded to about $65 on optimism surrounding renewed trade talks and tighter sanctions on Russian oil producers. Still, analysts say the recovery remains fragile.

"OPEC+ is blinking — but it's a calculated blink," said Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. "Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a new layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group knows that overproducing now could backfire later. By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity, and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels."

The U.S. and Britain imposed fresh restrictions last week on top Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil, measures that could limit Moscow's ability to increase production. Russia's participation is key to OPEC+ cohesion, but its output is now constrained by both sanctions and logistical bottlenecks.

Analysts say the first quarter of the year, typically the weakest for oil demand, was another factor behind the pause. "January to March is the softest period for global consumption," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects. "By holding back, OPEC+ is signaling that it's prepared to actively manage the market."

Market reaction is expected to be muted, said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS, since traders had already priced in the December increase. "Oil prices are unlikely to move much when trading opens," he said.

OPEC+ had previously cut production deeply to stabilize prices, with total reductions peaking at 5.85 million barrels per day in March. Those cuts were made up of three components: voluntary curbs of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd from eight key members, and another 2 million bpd from the wider group.

While OPEC+ has been unwinding those voluntary curbs since April, the broader reductions remain in place through the end of 2026. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is set for November 30, when the full group is expected to review market conditions and decide whether to extend the pause into the second quarter.